Sequential decision-making in sports: A simple heuristic account on choices

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This presentation provides an overview on sequential choices in sports. I illustrate the hot hand phenomenon, that is the belief of a players’ higher chance to score after two or three scores compared to two or three misses from a simple heuristic framework. The simple heuristic framework describes and explains fast choices using rule of thumb for instance when deciding as a playmaker to whom to allocate the ball. I argue that it is necessary to divide the phenomenon itself - stating that a player has actually an above-average (or below-average) performance - into the associated belief predicting that the perceived streak will continue and the behavior that is partly based on the belief.

Empirical evidence from studies in team sports such as Volleyball and Basketball will be used (Köppen & Raab, 2012; Raab & MacMahon, 2014). The studies showed that on the one hand the perception of hot hand sequences and their influence on allocation decisions is moderated partly by experience and expertise of the athletes, the length of the sequence and whether the person that acts or perceives such actions produces the judgment. Results indicate that a limited set of cues is used to describe these judgments and informs theories that assume the opposite. We conclude that the hot hand (or cold hand) from a simple heuristic perspective is a test-bed for psychological theories and provides simple but valid recommendations for sport choices.


Titel14th European Congress of Sport Psychology.
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2015
VeranstaltungFEPSAC: European Congress of Sport Psychology. - Bern, Schweiz
Dauer: 14.07.201519.07.2015
Konferenznummer: 14

ID: 1875945

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